In the last three years, we have undertaken extensive analysis of SDR data regarding the effect of family formation on menÕs and womenÕs rates of academic progression and have been able to pinpoint more closely when women leak out of the pipeline to tenure (Mason and Goulden 2002; Wolfinger, Mason, and Goulden 2004). Using discrete-event analysis (Allison 1995) and controlling for broad disciplinary field, age at PhD, prestige of PhD program (National Research Council program rankings), time-to-PhD degree, calendar year of PhD, and ethnicity, we conducted two separate assessments: the effect of gender and family formation on the year-to-year likelihood of (1) men and women PhDs entering a tenure-track position after the PhD and (2) tenure-track men and women achieving tenure. Based on these two analyses, we found that family patterns had a strong effect on the probability of women entering a tenure-track position, but family patterns had no clear independent effect on determining whether tenure-track faculty eventually achieve tenure. Rather, all tenure-track women were less likely eventually to achieve tenure than were tenure-track men.
[Slide 5: Leaks in the Pipeline: PhD to Tenure Track Position]
By converting the findings from these two regression models (Wolfinger, Mason, Goulden 2004) to expected probabilities for each of the possible career outcomes, tenure-track entry and the achievement of tenure, the extent of problems in the pipeline to tenure for women, particularly ones with family-related concerns, became clear. Slide 5 shows the year-by-year expected probability of different gender-family groups entering a tenure-track position. In the first year out from the PhD, the high water mark of tenure-track job entry, 16% of married men with children under 6 and 16% of single women without children under 6 are expected to enter a tenure-track position. In contrast, only 13% of married women without children under 6 and a paltry 10% of married women with children under 6 are predicted to do so. Thus, married men with children under 6 are 50% more likely than married women with children under 6 to join the ranks of tenure-track faculty in the first year out from the PhD; this increased likelihood holds steady for all years after receipt of the PhD. Because single women without children under 6 do as well as married men with children under 6, family formation completely explains why women are overall less likely than men to enter tenure-track positions (Wolfinger, Mason, and Goulden 2004). The message is clear: for women, babies and marriage, particularly in combination, dramatically decrease their likelihood of entering a tenure-track faculty position.
Robert M. Gray, September 12, 2004
